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resolve and consistency...,
2004-09-29 14:49:20
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kansafication...,
2004-09-29 23:09:09
From Rahul, "The administration is scrambling to try to rig the election but if it continues to be denied the use of its stratagems, it's just possible that it will eventually be boxed in.":
I have little doubt that elections in al-Anbar province would return an absolutely overwhelming vote for whatever party best represented or tied in with the mujaheddin. If the Association of Muslim Scholars formed a party, it would win elections there easily. In Salahuddin province, where Samarra and Tikrit are, presumably a more Ba'athist-affiliated resistance-representing party would win (divergences now between Ba'athists and Islamists are small and almost meaningless in political terms, although they can still represent factional and personalistic differences). The South is harder, but again in a legitimate vote the question in a real election would be between an armed resistance-based party (if, say, Sadr's organization became a party) and a strongly anti-occupation but non-resistance-based party.
Some of the exile parties, like SCIRI and al-Dawa, have built up a solid base of support. Others, even with a phenomenally skewed situation in which anti-occupation parties (that are nonviolent) are difficult or impossible to organize on anything but the most trivial basis (primarily because of lack of resources), have not built a solid base. Taken all together, even with all the help in the world because they have been placed in government for a year, I don't think there's a way that a majority of people would vote for them if there were a real choice.
:: posted by buermann @ 2004-09-29 15:40:44 CST |
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