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pat robertson...,
2005-05-02 12:10:19
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free from subscription revenue at last...,
2005-05-16 11:50:29
I've been afk for, it appears, two weeks. Numerous acts of monstronsity have come and gone in both Iraq and Afghanistan on various sides, such that I hardly need to comment, and otherwise this has hardly ever been much of a news aggregator, let alone useful in any way whatsoever. In meantime we offer some factoids from Sawicky until we find something else worth pointing out:
CBO assumes an equity ROR of 6.8 percent. Of greatest interest to me was a graph of the probability an equity portfolio underperformed Treasury bonds. This is analagous to whether you win or lose after a clawback under the Bush plan, where the offset rate is the rate of return on Treasuries. From year 1 to year 45, the probably falls from about 42 percent to about 13 percent. In other words, if you invested in stocks for 45 years (with an average return, presumably in some kind of index), at the end of the period you have a 13 percent chance of losing money, relative to just buying Treasuries.
And, wherein it should be noted that
real wages are falling the fastest they have since the 1990s recession, during a supposed boomtime for job growth:
In the "intermediate scenario" of the Social Security Trustees' report that gives rise to projections of Trust Fund exhaustion in 2041, the assumption on productivity growth is 1.6 percent. As noted above, over the past three years the average was 4.1 percent. The average over seven previous business cycles was 2.5 percent. Under the Trustees' "optimistic" scenario, wherein the Trust Fund maintains positive balances for the next 75 years, assumed productivity growth is just 1.9 percent.
:: posted by buermann @ 2005-05-15 13:00:57 CST |
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